Provisional results from the 2004 Welsh schools' census show that the number of pupils with statements has steadily declined from 16,655 in January 1999 to 15,919 in January 2004.
But John Wright, chief executive of the Independent Panel for Special Education Advice, was sceptical about the change.
"It's difficult to comment as there are so many possible explanations for this. However, we are always suspicious of this kind of shift as there's always the fear that authorities in Wales, like many authorities in England, may well be attempting to reduce the number of statements to save money regardless of children's needs."
The acid test would be to find out whether schools were better meeting their pupils' needs from their own budgets, he added.
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