The fortnight around Easter is the latest window of opportunity for releasing the document - a time when politicians are more likely to be ensconced in their constituencies than releasing policy documents at Westminster, especially just before a general election. If Tony Blair plumps for 5 May, Parliament may only reconvene for a short time after Easter and a period of purdah will commence, once again scuppering the green paper.
Few policy changes usually take place in the summer directly after an election, and even if they did on this occasion, the political landscape could well have changed considerably by then. The Bolton constituency of Ruth Kelly, the new Education Secretary, is supposed to be one of Labour's most at-risk seats. And youth minister Margaret Hodge could be due a move after two years in post. So it really isn't beyond the realms of possibility that the paper will be delayed until autumn 2005 - if it comes out at all.
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