Interview: Natalie Perera - EPI chief on what education catch up plans need to include

What does the latest evidence show on the extent of lost learning and its impact over the past year?

Our latest analysis for the Department for Education has shown many pupils had already experienced as many as two months of lost learning in their reading and three months in their maths by the autumn term. The real concern is that further losses are likely after all the disruption in the run-up to Christmas, and another period of remote learning in 2021.

Our modelling shows that months of lost education translate to lost earnings later in life for pupils. Depending on how much learning pupils have lost, they could be facing total lost lifetime earnings of between one and 3.4 per cent – that's between £8,000 and £50,000 in lost earnings per pupil.

Is the impact the same for every child or does it affect disadvantaged children more?

There is a strong possibility of significant inequalities and disengagement from education due to the heavily localised disruption in 2020. Some parts of the country saw stricter lockdowns, affecting their local schools and pupils' learning considerably, while others were relatively unscathed.

Our evidence shows that schools with high levels of disadvantage experienced higher levels of learning loss than other schools. It is highly likely that due to having home environments that are less conducive to online learning, pupils from deprived backgrounds will have faced the biggest penalties to their learning over the past year.

What interventions have been shown to work best in terms of boosting pupils' attainment?

One-to-one and small group tuition for pupils is one intervention that is shown to be particularly effective in securing additional learning progress, with research showing that it can lead to an attainment boost of up of to five months. However, as with many of the interventions we have proposed, these impressive gains depend strongly on getting the implementation right.

What measures do you think the government needs to introduce to offset the impact? How should these be funded?

Given the evidence that disadvantaged pupils are more likely to have been adversely affected, we need to see policies that offer additional resources for these pupils in a targeted way (see box). All of these policies fall within our overall £13.5bn package, delivered over three years.

Is it likely the pandemic will impact the educational and social development of a whole generation?

Our research has found that a package over three years is likely to be sufficient to reverse learning loss and support pupils' wellbeing, but we also know that in reality, the effects from this hugely disruptive period may still linger for some time to come. It's important that the government looks beyond this period, closely follows how this generation of young people have been impacted, and continues to look at what level of support is needed.

What are your fears about the impact on the attainment gap if the programme is insufficient?

This is a critical moment for education and social mobility. Given that the progress in narrowing the gap was already grinding to a halt before Covid hit the education system, we are deeply concerned that if government does not give this crisis the time, resources and investment it requires, we will see the gap beginning to widen significantly in the coming years.

THE EDUCATION POLICY INSTITUTE'S 10 PROPOSALS TO HELP PUPILS CATCH UP

• Extended school hours: open schools before and after normal hours to access a range of programmes, including sports clubs, social activities, games, pastoral support and academic programmes
• Summer wellbeing programmes: summer programmes should have an academic component while also providing an opportunity for young people to socialise through sports and other activities. It should be open to all pupils aged five to 16
• One-to-one and small group tuition: the government provides one-to-one and small group tuition via the National Tutoring Programme (NTP). It should continue to fund tuition over the next three years, through the NTP or directly through schools
• Extension of the Pupil Premium: The Pupil Premium should be increased to reflect the likely widening of the gap between poorer pupils and their peers following the pandemic. It should also be extended to those on a child protection plan
• Incentives to work in challenging areas: extra payments given to teachers to work in “challenging areas” should be doubled to £2,000 per year, extended to existing teachers, and focused on the poorest 20-25 per cent of schools
• Mental health support workers: given that young people's mental health has deteriorated over the past year, schools should be given additional, ring-fenced funding to hire a support worker
• Guidance for better wellbeing and inclusion: clear guidance should be given to schools to improve understanding of children's complex wellbeing needs and the need to avoid exclusions
• Softer accountability measures in 2021-22: Ofsted should focus inspection on how well schools are supporting pupils following the pandemic. School performance tables should be suspended in 2022
• Teachers' continuous professional development: the government should create a new and distinct professional development fund for all teachers which focuses on delivering high-quality support programmes with greater transparency and accountability
• Allow pupils to repeat a year if appropriate: to tackle extreme learning loss, the government should introduce a new right for pupils to repeat a year of education, where this is supported by their parents.