Local authorities are grappling with the population explosion that is taking place in England’s primary schools. The number of children in state-funded primaries is projected to surge by eight per cent between 2012 and 2015 to reach 4.4 million, according to the Department for Education.
The increase is much larger in certain urban areas and stands at 18 per cent in London as a whole.
Those councils affected the most have been planning frantically to accommodate the rise. Bristol City Council, for instance, forecasts a shortfall of more than 3,500 primary pupil places by 2016. It approved a £31m plan for school expansion and new buildings last September. Leeds City Council is expecting demand for reception-class places to rise by almost 1,500 over the coming year alone, and has approved 830 more places since 2009. “The increasing birth rate, along with people moving into the city and cross-border movement between neighbouring authorities, means there are still ongoing pressures we need to address over the next four years,” says Judith Blake, lead member for children’s services at Leeds council.
Interim solutions, which are to expand on existing school sites and create “bulge” classes and year groups, can be the most cost-effective. The Local Government Association’s senior adviser for children and young people, Ian Keating, says many schools have made good use of pre-fabricated accommodation and brought buildings that had closed down back into use. But he warns that these options are beginning to creak. “We’ve come to the point in many areas where options for expanding are running out and we now need a substantial additional programme of building,” he says.
The Chancellor announced a £1bn capital funding injection for schools in last month’s autumn statement, supplementing the £1.3bn allocated since 2010. But Keating says the sum is several billion short. “Before the extra £1bn, councils were reporting that based on their projections, the money was nowhere near meeting their need – only 20 to 25 per cent,” he says. “Obviously councils are expected to make a contribution, but the size of the contribution seems to be quite large.”
Keating is concerned that the government will ask authorities to bid for the extra cash when details about the £1bn capital funding are announced this month. “From what I can tell, it’s going to be a bidding process rather than an allocation on the basis of need,” he suggests. “We think it should go through the normal process of allocation to those with the greatest need. A bidding process just brings in a level of control from the centre, which we don’t think is necessary.”
Bidding for funding
A Department for Education spokeswoman says: “Local authorities will bid for the funding to build new academies and free schools or expand good schools, both academies and maintained.”
Keating also argues that the growth of academies has added a layer of bureaucracy that is slowing down authorities’ ability to increase school capacity. This is not only because new schools have to receive approval from the Secretary of State, but also because academies are not obliged to enlarge. “There’s more of a negotiation with schools these days about expanding,” he says. “Some schools may not want to expand and councils don’t have the power to force academies to expand. If they want to persuade maintained schools to expand, those schools have the option of converting to academy status.”
He says that in implementing its priority school building programme, the government has failed to learn lessons from Labour’s building schools for the future programme, in particular that “excessive centralisation” does not work. “We need quick action from the government for a system that is localist in its nature, funnels the money to councils and allows them to procure things locally. They’re the ones who know where the sites are,” he says.
A shortage of appropriate sites, particularly in London, is one of the greatest barriers to creating new places. Caroline Dawes, head of children’s services at lobby group London Councils, says schools in the capital’s boroughs are struggling to find land. “We are looking at what public sector land is around that can be used for schools,” she says, adding that lengthy public consultations prolong the process. She also points out that while schools have to comply with regulations regarding outdoor playing space, any excess space may be sacrificed to classrooms.
London Councils is predicting a shortfall of 90,000 primary school places across the capital by 2016, with associated costs of £2.3bn. Dawes says the DfE’s delay in publishing funding allocations to create more places has made planning for the increase more difficult. The group wrote to Education Secretary Michael Gove in November, warning that many children risk missing out on a school place in 2013. “It only amounts to about six weeks’ delay, but it makes a huge difference in being able to plan, particularly for permanent expansion,” says Dawes. It is also awaiting a response from the DfE to its call for a two-year, rather than a one-year, funding settlement, which it says would better enable councils to plan for the longer term.
Early applications
On the ground, Dawes says many London boroughs have tried to persuade parents to apply for school places as early as possible, to anticipate demand early. “Some boroughs are doing work around late applications and more outreach work with parents of children who are likely to apply for reception places,” she says. “In some boroughs, we’ve seen a significant reduction in the number of late applications. It makes it much easier to manage the system if you know in April how many children are going to need a school place. There’s still a few that come through in August because you get lots of mobility in London, but if you can get parents who live locally and know they need a school place to apply, that helps.”
Association of Directors of Children’s Services president Debbie Jones warns that other factors could affect child numbers. She suggests that real-terms cuts to benefits that come into force in April may further disrupt local demographics. “Part of the problem in relation to the benefits cap is that you will see families moving out of areas,” she explains. But she sees no evidence to suggest this movement will relieve pressures on primary schools: “What’s likely to happen is that families move out of central London into outer London boroughs, and that just shifts the pressure.”
Many local authorities have already begun engaging the secondary and further education sector in preparation for the increase in demand for places that will hit in several years’ time, when the current cohort of five-year-olds reach Key Stage 3. “There’s no indication that the rise is going to level off,” warns Jones. “Pressure on primary school places after a number of years translates to pressure on secondary places.”
Jones says local authorities are doing everything they can to increase capacity and ensure quality of provision within a challenging climate. “Authorities will look at whatever is available to ensure that they expand good schools where they are needed,” she insists. “Whether it’s free schools or academies, it makes no difference. It’s not the governance, but ensuring that places are where they are needed, and of the right quality.”
How Southwark is addressing demand for school places
By Cllr Dora Dixon-Fyle, cabinet member for children’s services, Southwark Council
“Southwark is facing unprecedented demand for primary school places. The borough has the ninth highest population density in England and Wales, according to the 2011 census. Over the past decade, the number of households rose by 13.8 per cent, compared with 8.3 per cent across London as a whole. Rising birth rates and the recession’s impact on the housing market has resulted in more families staying in Southwark when their children reach school age.
"The council estimates that 360 new reception places are required over the next three financial years, and more in future years if current trends continue. We are working closely with local schools to develop a multi-million pound investment programme to meet this demand. As well as extensions and new classrooms in existing schools, some of the demand will be met through free schools or academies. Here, we are working with the Department for Education as well as potential sponsors.
"Any extra places, in new or existing schools, must be high quality. We have identified 23 primary schools across the borough with capacity to either expand within their existing premises or into new accommodation.
"The proposed programme will cost up to £65m. A further £12m is needed for ongoing schools maintenance and £2m for temporary expansions for classes in 2013 to deal with immediate demand. Funding is not yet confirmed, but it is likely to be made up of existing DfE grants for new places, future anticipated grants, Section 106 money from building projects, general funding and the community infrastructure levy. At this point, we don’t know what funding we will receive from DfE, but we anticipate receiving the grant settlement in January and hope it will be for longer than a year.
"It won’t be easy, but we must do something to provide high quality places for our children. With continuing investment, attainment is at or above the national average and still improving.”
Growth in pupils
- 1 in 10 London children will be short of a primary-school place by 2016 (amounting to 90,000)
- 4,417,000 pupils will be in England’s state-funded primary schools by 2015
- 36,850 State-funded primary school pupils in excess of school capacity, as of May 2011
Source: London Councils; Department for Education; and Office for National Statistics
