Social mobility and selection do not mix

Effective whole-population analysis is much easier now we are in the world of big data and the National Pupil Database. However, even though the problems of sampling are avoided, the move from raw data, through information to understanding to action, requires careful thought. It is easy, for example, to confuse correlation with causation, or to get the causal factors the wrong way round. All research should be read with a sceptical eye, and with an eye to alternative explanations.

What, then, does the report show? The key finding is that, as with health, there is a clear link between poor education outcomes and low income. So far, so well known, but the richness of the National Pupil Database enables fine-grained analysis. While in primary schools many children on free school meals do as well as more affluent pupils, at secondary the large majority of pupils on free school meals make significantly less progress than their peers, even when they did well in primary school. There are clear questions here for policy makers, practitioners and researchers: what is behind this failure to maintain progress? What about school funding? What can secondary schools do to overcome this lack of progress? The report hypothesises that out-of-school effects, such as parental support and the home learning environment, are important.