Lucy Dawes, director of performance at the YJB, made the estimate as latest figures revealed that reductions in children being remanded to youth jails are running at twice the national average in areas piloting new approaches.
Figures released by the YJB show that eight pilot areas trialling a YJB toolkit, which contains a series of methods that YOTs can use to reduce remand levels, have seen a reduction of 18 per cent in the number of secure and custodial remands between July 2010 and June 2011, compared to the previous year.
Nationally, there was a nine per cent reduction during the same period.
Moves to improve practice in this way – combined with the introduction of revised legislation that will include a new framework for remand and see the cost of remands devolved to local authorities – will lead to a substantial reduction in custody levels, Dawes told CYP Now.
"I think the minimum [reduction] would be around 10 per cent," she said. "We could see more than that if we support youth offending teams (YOTs) to look at their practice. There is a lot YOTs could do and YOTs are very keen to do it."
The youth custody level stood at 1,891 in December.
Under the Legal Aid Sentencing and Punishment of Offenders Bill, a new "remand framework" will also be introduced, specifying that there should be a real prospect of young people getting a custodial sentence for remand to custody to be considered.
Financial responsibility for remand budgets will be handed to local authorities from April 2013. The YJB has confirmed that an "associated transfer of funding" will be made to local authorities to cover the cost of remands.
A final decision on how much this will be has yet to be made, with the YJB stating that "a range of options are being modelled", taking into account anticipated reductions in remand as a result of the new framework and improvements to practice – such as those seen in the pilot areas.
So far, YOTs in Waltham Forest, Wandsworth, Kent, Wessex, Lancashire, Manchester, Hull and Sheffield have trialled the toolkit, with a further 15 YOTs, including Birmingham, Bristol, Liverpool and Leeds, taking part in a second wave.
