School closures could see pupils miss out on £11bn in future earnings, research finds

A new study by London Economics for the Sutton Trust found that the long-term impact of school closures on future earnings is more than three times higher for those from less well-off homes compared with those from advantaged backgrounds. 

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On average, across the 2019/20 cohort of year 11 students in England, the projected loss in earnings over a 20-year period due to missed learning since March, is £3,830 for young men from low socio-economic backgrounds, and £1,150 for those from high socio-economic backgrounds.

Researchers estimate that the proportion of boys from low socio-economic backgrounds being among the highest earners in later life is expected to drop from 16.3 per cent to 15.0 per cent. 

This means that for boys from disadvantaged backgrounds, their chances of becoming socially mobile has dropped by 7.5 per cent.

For girls, the impact is slightly less, with their chances of becoming socially mobile dropping by 4.5 per cent. 

For just year 11s in England, the overall economic cost of missed learning is likely to be at least £1.6bn with the economic cost of all those in secondary school predicted to be more than £11bn.

Pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds are more likely to be impacted by economic loss due to an increased loss of learning during lockdown, researchers say.

Evidence published by the National Foundation for Education Research estimated that the perceived learning loss for pupils in the most deprived schools was, on average, 3.7 months, compared with 2.4 months in the least deprived schools.

The Sutton Trust has called on the government, schools and local authorities to provide targeted support for the most disadvantaged pupils including improved access to technology and the internet.

Sir Peter Lampl, founder and chairman of the Sutton Trust and chairman of the Education Endowment Foundation, said: “Our new research shows just how much young people – and particularly those from lower-income backgrounds – have lost out as a result of school closures. 

“To mitigate against this the Sutton Trust would like to see significantly more resources targeted at disadvantaged pupils such as access to digital devices and services for online learning and resources for small group tuition.”

Maike Halterbeck, associate director at London Economics added: “There needs to be significant investment from the government to rectify these losses and to support the recent social mobility gains that have been achieved. This report provides the government with the economic evidence to support this much-needed investment.”