The Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission’s response to the government’s Draft Child Poverty Strategy 2014-17, published in February, has concluded that the measures in it will be insufficient to prevent both absolute and relative poverty rising for families with children.
The commission, chaired by former Labour Health Secretary Alan Milburn, projects that if current employment and economic trends continue 3.5 million children will be living in absolute poverty – classed as households with a net income of 60 per cent of the median – by 2020.
The report says that even if the government achieves its “heroic” assumptions on rising parental employment and earnings rates, 21 per cent of all children will still be living in absolute poverty by 2020. This is more than four times the target set out in the Child Poverty Act 2010 to cut the rate to less than five per cent of households with children.
Analysis carried out for the commission by Landman Economics and the National Institute for Economic and Social Research, finds that to achieve the 2020 target within the current tax and benefits system would require near-full employment rates and big increases in the working hours of parents, outcomes it describes as “implausible”.
It concludes that the draft strategy is a “missed opportunity” that lacks clear measures to assess effectiveness, is a collection of policies rather than coherent plan, and lacks action on “in-work” poverty and policies to tackle low pay.
Milburn said: “The government’s draft child poverty strategy is a missed opportunity. The farce of ministers proving unable to agree on how to measure poverty after rubbishing existing measures is particularly lamentable.
“The government’s approach falls far short of what is needed to reduce, yet alone end, child poverty in our country. Our new research shows that the gap between the objective of making child poverty history and the reality is becoming ever wider.
“This is not just an issue for the current government. Politicians from all parties say they are committed to the 2020 targets. Willing the ends without the means today merely becomes a broken promise tomorrow.”
Matthew Reed, chief executive of the Children’s Society, said the government needs to develop a new strategy showing how it will meet the 2020 target.
He said: “There are a number of practical steps that the government can take to end child poverty in the UK. These include making free school meals available to all children in poverty and to make sure that all children living in poverty automatically get the warm home discount. Both are pivotal to helping to put an end to the millions of families that every day face harsh choices between giving their putting food on the table and heating their home.”
Alison Garnham, chief executive of Child Poverty Action Group, agreed that the draft strategy needs a “major revamp with a clear explanation of how targets will be met”.
“The big problem is the coalition’s decision to target austerity on children’s benefits and tax credits for families in low-paid work. It is not fair to punish millions of families with children for an economic crisis caused by the banks.
“Now the economy is growing, we need a commitment to restore the value of children’s benefits to their level before the financial crisis.”
The commission report calls for cross-government strategies to tackle low pay, action to ensure people are not worse off in work than on benefits, and work undertaken to tackle the cost of living.
