Authors: Jo Blanden, Emilia Del Bono, Kirstine Hansen, Sandra McNally and Birgitta Rabe
Published by: University of Surrey, University of Essex, University of London, October 2014
SUMMARY
The authors of this report, which was presented to the House of Lords in October, say it is the first paper to analyse the effects of the free childcare entitlement for three-year-olds on children's outcomes in England. The research was funded by the Nuffield Foundation and the Economic and Social Research Council's Secondary Data Analysis Initiative.
The researchers looked at data on all students in state schools in England (92 per cent of students), focusing on outcomes at age five, seven and 11, alongside the proportion of children attending nursery and pre-school aged three between 2001 and 2007. They took into account other possible contributing factors, such as ethnicity, eligibility for free school meals and the effect of other policies such as Sure Start, when calculating the effects of pre-school attendance on outcomes.
Overall, the researchers found the free entitlement for three-year-olds did not deliver the expected gains. A 10 per cent increase in the proportion of three-year-olds able to access free nursery places was shown to improve the average score on the Foundation Stage Profile, at age five, by around two per cent, from 87.5 to 89.3. The proportion of three-year-olds in England benefiting from a free nursery place rose from 37 per cent to 88 per cent between 1999 and 2007, up by 51 percentage points. Based on this, the researchers calculate outcomes for five-year-olds improved by around nine percentage points, the equivalent of being one and a half months older.
While free nursery places had a small beneficial effect at age five, the size of the effect declined further by age seven and disappeared altogether by age 11. For example, at age seven, free childcare availability led to a 0.4 percentage point increase in outcomes in writing with no effect on maths. By age 11 there were no statistically significant effects.
The researchers also studied the effects of the availability of free childcare on those eligible for free school meals, children from deprived neighbourhoods and children with English as an additional language. They found no statistically significant effects on children eligible for free school meals, compared with their cohorts, or on children with English as an additional language. Free childcare availability did benefit children who lived in deprived areas more than those who lived in affluent and middle-income areas at age five, although those differences disappeared by the age of seven.
Although the proportion of three-year-olds in England accessing a free nursery place rose 51 percentage points between 1999 and 2007, four out of five three-year-olds were already in some form of childcare in 1999. By 2007 the number of free places had increased by 50 percentage points but the number of three-year-olds in childcare had increased by only 14 percentage points.
IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE
The researchers say it is difficult to explain why the free entitlement policy has not had more of an impact, although the fact the majority of children would have been in childcare anyway may have an effect. They suggest another factor may be insufficient attention to the quality of the newly funded private places, particularly as previous research shows private nurseries serving less-advantaged children are likely to obtain lower than average inspection ratings. The findings cast some doubt over the effects of universal provision and could focus debate on ways to target more disadvantaged children.
FURTHER READING
- The Impact of Free, Universal Pre-school Education on Maternal Labour Supply, Mike Brewer, Sarah Cattan, Claire Crawford, and Birgitta Rabe, University of Essex and Institute for Fiscal Studies, October 2014. This research estimates the impact on mothers with three-year-old children who were entitled to free childcare or early education and finds only a small number of women were helped into work.
- Delivering the Free Entitlement for Three and Four-Year-Olds, report by the comptroller and auditor general, National Audit Office, February 2012. An assessment of the delivery of free childcare and whether the policy represents value for money.
- The Effect of Pre-primary Education on Primary School Performance, Samuel Berlinski, Sebastian Galiani and Paul Gertler, Institute for Fiscal Studies, February 2006. A study of a large expansion of universal pre-primary education on primary school performance in Argentina.
