A report by the Education Policy Institute (EPI) on the effects of falling school rolls has found that all regions will experience a decrease in primary school funding between 2023/24 and 2029/30, with the North East projected to experience the largest decrease of 9%.
The East of England is projected to have the smallest decrease of 1.2%.
Secondary funding is set to overtake primary funding in 2026/27, however, both primary and secondary funding will see a downwards trend, the report adds.
Funding for primary schools is currently 5.9% higher than that of secondary schools, but by 2029/30, secondary funding will be 1.2% higher than primary funding, according to researchers.
Overall funding for schools is set to peak in 2024/25 at £42.7 billion, then decrease by 0.5% a year until 2029/30.
The report also finds that total pupil numbers in state-funded primary and secondary schools are projected to fall from a peak of 7.57 million in 2022/23 to 7.14 million in 2028/29, due to a declining birth rate.
London and the North East are expected to see the biggest decline in pupil numbers.
The North East is projected to have the greatest decline pupil numbers - 12.7% between 2023 to 2029 - at primary school level, with Yorkshire and the Humber, the North East and London projected to see the greatest decrease at secondary level.
Meanwhile, the West Midlands, South East and East of England are set to see a rise in secondary pupils.
The report states: “In the coming years, policymakers must carefully consider the impacts of changes to the national funding formula on schools that are most affected by falling pupil numbers.
"Increases to per-pupil factors may disproportionately benefit areas projected to see a rise in pupil numbers, while further funding through the lump sum or school-led factors risks weakening the link between deprivation and funding through the National Funding Formula.”
Jenna Julius, research director at the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER), said: “The new EPI report echoes the insights from NFER analysis which highlighted demographic change is likely to exacerbate the current financial challenges on schools, particularly in the primary sector.
“It is crucial that policymakers proactively plan for the complex system-level change that will be needed to accommodate the anticipated decline in pupil numbers. If not, financial pressures risk impacting on the life-chances of pupils in affected schools.”
