The experts told MPs on the Education Select Committee, which is undertaking an inquiry into the SEND system, it is unlikely that English local authorities will be able to repay the £4.6bn overspend in their high needs budgets, which have accumulated since 2016/17, due to the funding crisis in local government.
The government has allowed this spending deficit through a mechanism called the statutory override, a temporary accounting fix which is due to end in March 2026. If the override is not renewed, the Department for Education estimates that nearly half of all English local authorities would be at risk of going bankrupt.
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