Latest Ofsted figures show the overall number of registered childcare providers dropped by more than 3,000 from around 75,000 at the end of April 2020 to just over 71,800 by the end of April this year.
While new provision has opened, as of the end of April 2021 there were 2,146 fewer childminders, 383 fewer nurseries or other settings “operating on non-domestic premises” while the total number of “home childcarers” such as nannies and au pairs dropped by 637.
The rapid decrease in numbers comes on the back of a longer-term trend that has seen a steep drop in the number of childminders and a reduction in some other types of provision in recent years.
Although Ofsted’s data shows the number of available places on its Early Years Register – provision for under-fives – has remained relatively stable.
“We’ve been looking at closure data since 2017 and it has followed a worrying trend,” says Jonathan Broadbery, director of policy and communications at the National Day Nurseries Association (NDNA).
“Setting closure had been increasing year on year, especially in areas of deprivation or where hourly funding rates are lowest.”
Double whammy
The pandemic has since hit providers with the double whammy of increased costs – to keep children and staff safe – and reduced income due to lower occupancy, lockdowns and temporary closures.
“Now we’re seeing evidence of closures among nurseries and other types of provisions which were previously stable,” says Rose Porter, campaigns and communications officer at the Professional Association for Childcare and Early Years (Pacey).
According to Early Years Alliance chief executive Neil Leitch, the sector is unlikely to bounce back in the near future.
“Looking at comments from those that have left the sector or consolidated their businesses, I don’t get the impression they’re looking to come back in any time soon,” he says.
While some organisations are starting to recover, the statistics show significantly more providers left the Ofsted register than joined in the first four months of 2021.
Many settings have been forced to adapt their business models including increasing prices, reducing staff and reviewing the provision they offer, says Porter.
“Some providers have diversified such as offering wraparound childcare before and after school in response to changes in demand for provision,” she says.
However, if plans to extend the school day in England go ahead these providers may face a further financial hit.
“The recovery for many providers is unclear and will depend on future working patterns and how quickly any uplift in demand for childcare places increases,” says Porter.
“We know some providers have already seen demand return to pre-pandemic levels.”
Others are reporting lower occupancy levels while some are so busy they’re having to turn families away.
“Some close to hospitals have stayed open to support key workers and fared better than those supporting families who have had to change their working patterns,” says Porter.
The data suggests the number of children returning to settings is increasing but is still lower than expected across the country, says Broadbery.
“There’s a lot of variation depending on where in the country settings are as well as the situation of parents,” he adds.
“It’s not just about the number of children but the amount of time they spend in settings. We’re hearing of more children attending only for funded places. Given the chronic underfunding of those places, this puts additional financial pressure on settings.”
All three- and four-year-olds in England are entitled to 15 hours of free early education and childcare per week with some eligible for 30 hours. Some two-year-olds are also eligible for 15 hours.
But providers say funding for these schemes does not cover the true cost of delivery.
Meanwhile, it is hard to predict how many working parents will return to their former work patterns and previous childcare needs.
Recruitment concerns
Despite the fact there are fewer settings, recruiting staff continues to be a big problem, explains Leitch.
“You would think it would leave more people to come and be employed elsewhere but even with reduced provider levels, settings are still struggling to recruit,” he says.
The NDNA has also seen more of its members reporting problems recruiting staff.
“Many are still running a higher staff to child ratio than normal to ensure they can operate with smaller groups of children or manage staff absences,” says Broadbery.
“The majority are telling us it’s very difficult to recruit, especially for Level 3-qualified staff.”
The concern is those children worst-affected by shortages of high-quality provision will be those who are already disadvantaged.
“My fear is that when the market starts to adjust, children who would get the most benefit will start to become marginalised because settings can no longer operate in those areas,” says Leitch.
“When I talk to investors, I don’t see many saying: ‘Give me an area of deprivation’. They’re saying: ‘Where are the most affluent areas?’”
When it comes to why people are jumping ship from early years jobs, the reason is simple, says Leitch: “We are one of the lowest payers so people go and work in other sectors where they can earn at least the same amount with considerably less anxiety and pressure.”
A survey of more than 3,800 childcare professionals by the Early Years Alliance in December and January found one in five were considering leaving the sector due to stress or mental health difficulties related to the impact of Covid.
In all, 87 per cent of practitioners said they did not feel the role the sector has played during the pandemic has been adequately valued by government.
“Early years has continued to be treated as the poor relation,” says Leitch.
“The only hope we can grab onto is that we were part of the national infrastructure throughout the crisis and I think government recognises that.”
However, until early years is seen as an essential part of the education system – on a par with schools – he fears many challenges will remain.
In order to support existing providers and encourage new ones, funding issues must be addressed, says Broadbery.
“The hourly rates are the biggest part to tackle but more can be done to ensure the millions of pounds in funded places and tax-free childcare support reaches frontline providers,” he says.
Other measures include bringing the early years pupil premium for disadvantaged children in line with rates paid in primary schools and resolving long-standing issues around business rates and VAT for nurseries.
“Zero business rates and putting nurseries on the same VAT footing as academies would help support the sector that is a vital part of our national infrastructure,” says Broadbery.
Joined-up strategy
What’s needed is a joined-up strategy “that is ambitious enough to ensure the viability of providers while the sector adapts in a post-pandemic era”, says Porter.
This must take into account changes in family and work patterns, the use of free childcare places and drops in the use of private-funded provision.
In June, the government announced a further £1.4bn in “education recovery” funding including £153m for professional development for early years practitioners.
This is a good start but more investment is required, says Porter.
“This means addressing the existing barriers to recruitment and negative stereotypes of the role, starting with a comprehensive review of the way the sector is funded and securing fair and equitable pay for practitioners,” she concludes.
THE ROLE OF OFSTED IN SUPPORTING THE SECTOR
Full inspections of early years and childcare settings by Ofsted were paused during the pandemic but on-site visits got under way again this spring.
“Throughout the pandemic we have spoken to stakeholders both individually and through our Early Years Stakeholder Forum, which includes a wide range of provider types,” says an Ofsted spokeswoman.
“We used these discussions to understand current issues in the sector, including the challenges providers are facing as a result of Covid-19.”
Interim visits carried out during the crisis did not result in an inspection grade.
“The sector was unanimous that resuming routine inspection was preferable as soon as it was safe to do so,” says the spokeswoman.
“We know providers prefer to receive a graded judgment following inspection. Our judgments help reassure parents, stimulate business and allow providers to access funding from local authorities.”
Ofsted says it will continue work to improve registration processes. “Fast-track registration is still available in areas where there is local need, as the sector responds flexibly to demands from parents,” says the spokeswoman.
Sector leaders have praised Ofsted’s approach.
“I think the dialogue with Ofsted throughout the pandemic has been first rate,” says the Early Years Alliance’s Neil Leitch. “They have wanted to engage and endeavoured to be thoughtful of the needs of the sector.”
There are still a lot of measures in place within settings to limit the spread of Covid and keep children and staff safe, says the NDNA’s Jonathan Broadbery.
“This means settings may not look or feel the way they did before the pandemic. We hope this is taken into account by inspectors,” he adds.
The way interim visits were recorded online has caused some concern as it is not immediately clear some were routine rather than in response to specific incidents.
“We’re pleased to see inspections re-start as providers who have been awaiting re-inspection will be keen to get these done as soon as possible,” says Broadbery.
INSPECTIONS SHORTS
EDUCATION
Nearly nine out of 10 parents think their child’s school handled the Covid-19 pandemic well, according to Ofsted’s annual survey of parents. More than 1,000 parents took part in the online survey, which found 87 per cent felt their school had dealt with the pandemic well. However, 67 per cent said they were worried about the impact on children’s learning with the same proportion worried about their mental health.
YOUTH JUSTICE
More must be done to get young offenders into education, employment and training, according to new research by HM Inspectorate of Probation. The research – based on 43 inspections of youth offending teams – found many strong examples of multi-agency working and positive relationships between staff and children, but also identified gaps in provision including problems accessing child and adolescent mental health services and a lack of services for girls.
OFSTED
Ofsted’s chief inspector Amanda Spielman is to continue in the role for a further two years. Her re-appointment as chief inspector of education, children’s services and skills was announced by Education Secretary Gavin Williamson. The new term will start in January 2022, when Spielman’s initial five-year term comes to end, and will run until December 2023. “I’m delighted to have more time as chief inspector and I’m determined to spend that time acting in the best interests of children and learners,” she said.
YOUTH JUSTICE
Parc Young Offender Institution in Wales improved access to training and education despite the challenges posed by the pandemic, inspectors found. A visit by HM Inspectorate of Prisons in April this year found evidence of progress in many areas thanks to successful recovery planning which meant children were spending nearly 10 hours out of the cell every weekday, including 4.5 hours of education, exercises and other activities.
SOCIAL CARE
Children in care and care leavers have struggled during the pandemic despite the best efforts of staff, according to Ofsted’s national director for regulation and social care Yvette Stanley. Reporting on initial findings from the regulator’s annual social care survey, Stanley said many children had praised the efforts of staff to keep them safe and happy “but there’s no getting away from the fact some children have found it very hard”. The surveys of children, parents and staff, carried out during the third national lockdown in England, generated more than 49,000 responses including 7,000 from children. The full findings are due out soon.
