Tackling decline in London pupil numbers

Latest analysis of school capacity data by London Councils has highlighted a drop in demand for secondary school places in London, which children’s services leaders fear could have a devastating impact on wider support services.

Analysis by the umbrella body for the capital’s 32 boroughs, projects there will be a 4.4 per cent decline in reception pupils and 4.3 per cent drop in the demand for year 7 places by 2027/28. This year there has already been a 2.4 per cent decrease in the number of applications made for secondary school places in the capital, according to figures from the Pan-London Admissions Board.

London Councils cites several factors for the decline in demand for places including the Covid-19 pandemic, the increase in the cost of living, the impact of Brexit and the lack of affordable housing available in London. London also experienced a lower percentage change in the total numbers of live births than the rest of the country in 2020, with the birth rate continuing to decline since this point.

Impact and reach

Boroughs in central London are worst affected. According to government figures, Lambeth will see a 14.3 per cent fall in pupils from 2021/22 to 2026/27, followed by 11.8 per cent in City of London, 8.1 per cent in Lewisham, 7.4 per cent in Westminster and seven per cent in Camden.

Declining pupil numbers are threatening the viability of schools. Hackney Council recently closed four primary schools, with more planned, while in Southwark, the council has identified 16 schools at risk of closure due to falling pupil numbers.

Jon Abbey, director of children’s services and people at Islington Council and education policy lead at the Association of London DCSs, says: “Eight to 10 years ago we were dealing with schools not being big enough, but now we’re thinking about how to reduce the school estate.”

Abbey explains that while there has been a decline in pupil numbers nationally, the effect is most pronounced in the capital, with 30 of 32 London boroughs reporting falls.

He attributes struggles to a “lack of investment in infrastructure and services in the last 15 years”, linked to austerity in public services.

Abbey says falling pupil numbers don’t just lead to school closures – but have a wider impact on communities.

“Each place is worth £5,300 to a primary school and £7,000 to a secondary school,” he explains. “If you don’t get that money coming in per pupil, gaps in the budget appear.”

The fall in pupils is reducing school budgets at a time of spiralling costs, with around a quarter of London schools in deficit. As a result, Abbey says many schools have had to take out layers of support staff and stop essential spending on building works or equipment.

In Islington, which has 60 schools, spare places have resulted in a £15 million budget gap this year, says Abbey. “To reduce that, we have to think about closing schools,” he adds. “But we’re aware that we don’t want to decimate the legacies of schools. Schools are pillars of the community. It’s demoralising to close schools. It feels like a really challenging future.”

Despite the challenges, Abbey says there are a few “outlier” councils where pupil numbers are holding steady. One of these is Tower Hamlets, whose director of children’s services, Steve Reddy, says is in a “relatively strong position”.

Next steps

Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, told CYP Now that he is “really worried about local authorities taking permanent decisions based on what could be a short- to medium-term blip in the demography of London”, and that City Hall has “got to make sure that we can support families to stay in London”.

The mayor highlighted the freezing of Transport for London fares and extension of free school meals for all state primary school pupils until summer 2025 as ways he is attempting to tackle the issue.

Abbey reveals that there was recently a workshop involving the Department for Education, Ofsted, church leaders, education officers, unions, and directors of children’s services to consider what needs to be done over the next two years, with recommendations set to be put forward to London Councils and the DfE shortly.

Abbey explains: “We can’t just say to the government ‘we need more money’ because the Treasury doesn’t have that. We need to find a different way around gaining funding for schools. There needs to be more trust and autonomy with local authorities to manage pupil numbers and admissions. But underlying all of this is the need for good outcomes for children.”

The Local Government Association said the challenges were compounded by the fact local authorities have no direct control over academy schools, and that they should be given powers to reduce the size of, or close, academies – as they do with maintained schools.

Louise Gittins, chair of the Local Government Association’s children and young people board, says: “Councils work closely with schools to ensure there’s a sufficiency of places to meet demand. In the past, demand has been met by expanding provision in existing schools. They will continue to work with schools to respond to local changes in demand. Councils should also be given the responsibility for in-year admissions, and powers to direct all schools to accept local children on to their roll, where appropriate.”

Tammy Campbell, director for early years at the Education Policy Institute (EPI), says boosting early years provision should be considered a factor in making London more attractive to families.

“Evidence indicates that families with lower incomes are less likely to live in inner London,” she says. “It will be important to monitor what this means for equality in access to services, including early education and care.

“Because maintained nurseries are clustered in inner cities, children from low-income families will have lower chances of accessing this type of high-quality pre-school provision if they live elsewhere. This is an important part of the picture that the government should bear in mind and potentially address as they roll out extended funding and services for the early years.”

Amid rising demand for services and budget cuts in local government, children’s services leaders will be hoping that national policymakers can find a solution to falling pupil numbers that doesn’t result in local resources and support being cut.

In numbers

• 4.4% decline in reception places in London by 2027/28

• 30 out of London’s 32 boroughs reported a decline in pupil numbers in 2022/23

• 90k fewer applications made to secondary schools in London in 2022/23

• Source: London Councils; Pan London Admissions Board

Managing Falling School Rolls in London from www.londoncouncils.gov.uk