Further austerity is the only election certainty
Derren Hayes
Monday, April 27, 2015
As the curtain comes down on this Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government, it is worth reflecting on what we've learnt from the past five years - as it looks increasingly likely that the future holds more of the same.
As election day draws nearer, all the polls suggest no one party is likely to win an overall majority, with the result being that Labour and the Conservatives will have to negotiate with the "minor" parties over forming a new coalition government.
In 2010, it took five days of tense negotiation between the three main parties before the coalition agreement was signed. Back then, coalitions were uncharted territory in modern British politics, whereas now the parties have had plenty of time to plan for such an outcome. But despite that, the talks this time, should there be a hung parliament, look set to be far more complex and unpredictable, thanks to the growing popularity of the smaller parties - the nationalists in Scotland and Wales, and Ukip and the Greens in England. The outcome could result in a fracturing of the centre-left and centre-right politics that has dominated since the mid-1990s, with the potential for a new coalition leaning much further to the left or right. The other possibility is that the party that wins the most seats pushes ahead as a minority government and looks for backing from other parties on an issue-by-issue basis. Either scenario points to a sustained period of increased political uncertainty, with potentially damaging implications for policy making across a whole range of issues affecting children, young people and families.
The past five years have shown it is harder to achieve consistent policy making under a coalition government, and this is likely to be amplified as the number of parties involved increases. Likewise, minority governments are less likely to develop innovative and ambitious legislation for fear it will not be backed by parliament and could trigger a vote of no confidence.
For children's services leaders, the crumbs of comfort from this uncertain political outlook can be found in the amount of consistency in the main parliamentary parties' manifestos (see policy guide). Of course, there are areas where they deviate, most notably over benefits sanctions, school independence and the role of the private sector in public services. But across many key issues for children and families, there is much convergence of ideas.
All are pledging more money for the NHS and particularly to address deficiencies in children's mental health services. On childcare, the question seems to be the extent of expansion rather than if it happens at all. While the route to getting there may vary, the consensus is to invest in creating more apprenticeships for young people. And on supporting looked-after children, there is general recognition of the need to create the right conditions for permanence, not to mention encouraging words on extending Staying Put rights to residential care (see interviews).
Analysis from the Institute for Fiscal Studies shows that austerity in public spending will continue throughout the next parliament whoever is in office. After the polls close, and any subsequent coalition horse-trading takes place, it will be just a case of how deep the cuts to spending are going to be.