Early help may fall foul of school staff cuts

What is really happening, though, is harder to interest people in. It is the steady and accelerating decline in children's services. I have to avoid sounding Jeremiah-like, but it really is the case that our frontline services for children are now unrecognisable from the services of 10 years ago - and the coming year heralds more to come.

All the local authorities I work with have introduced new budget reductions from this April - on top of the 40 per cent cuts they had previously made. All are seeking to strengthen their early help services, to try to reduce the increasing numbers of children with genuine need being referred for assessment. All are trying to keep a lid on the rise in children coming into care. All are restricting the amount that is spent on children in their care. All are seeing reductions in school nurses and health visitors.

Yet the predictions of many (including me) that the system would collapse have still not come to pass. Why not? First, there is the capacity of people in children's services to "keep on keeping on". We feel we don't have the luxury of taking our bat home; we came into the work to keep children safe, support families in need, help children develop, and we feel that the tough days are the days when our toughness is tested.

Second, Ofsted inspectors are increasingly recognising the crisis. The last batch of Ofsted reports of councils and local safeguarding children's boards have been rather more positive than previously. As we approach the point - by the end of 2017 - when all 152 councils will have been inspected, the proportion of authorities and boards rated "good" is increasing. Partly everyone is getting to understand what Ofsted is looking for, so we are better prepared. Partly Ofsted inspectors understand more pointedly the context in which we are all working; they are intelligent people and can spot when people are doing their best in challenging circumstances. Well done to all who have come out well - but are they being marked in the same way as before?

I suspect the next hurdle is just over the horizon. This autumn, many schools will see their budgets cut significantly for the first time. As children's services have shrunk, schools have become ever more important in providing early help. Some heads still feel that pastoral care and family support is an add-on to their principal role of curriculum delivery. I fear that the brunt of school staffing cuts might come in early help. What will that do to the vital relationship between councils, health bodies and schools?

Sir Paul Ennals is independent chair of four local safeguarding children's boards